Administrative Note
Due to floods of egregious comment spam, I am shutting off comments at C101 for the time being.
If anyone wants to post and moderate comments, let me know, and I will change the settings.
Shaula
Progressive Youth blogging it up.
Due to floods of egregious comment spam, I am shutting off comments at C101 for the time being.
In the discussion on Anatomy of a Smear, BOP Reader Mike commented that my gloom-and-doom predictions that Virginia Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Tim Kaine may have lost the election last week are too pessimistic.
I decided to reply to Mike in a new post, because he brings up an important point:
Can Democrats ever be too pessimistic?
My answer is a resounding No.
Democrats were a ruling party for a long, long time--yes, even here in Virginia, if you dig back far enough in history. (The statistic tossed around on the campaign I worked in '03 was that Democrats hadn't picked up new seats in the Virginia House of Delegates for 25 years.) Democrats were even the dominant party in Texas state politics. I know, it is hard to fathom today. When you are on top for long enough, you tend to get fat and lazy. You lose your competitive edge, and you forget how to fight. The Democratic party still runs by and large like it is "entitled" to win, like it can sit back and wait for the votes and dollars to roll in. This strategy clearly isn't working.
When I am involved with an election campaign, it is my job to expect the worst, and prepare to win anyway. In fact, anticipating just how many things can go wrong is a big part of my job. I'll take an easy win, but I'll never expect one or bank on one. And, as far as I'm concerned, the polls may close at 7pm but the election isn't over (and my job isn't over) until an authentic tally of the votes has been performed and the election results are certified. So, when I take seriously the threat posed last week not just by the vicious distatesfulness of Kilgore's attack ads, but by the Kaine campaign's pitiful response, it isn't out of melodrama. It is out of a desire to win, and an awareness of what it takes to win. (I'm not trying to say "I'm right because I'm an expert." I'm saying that I blog as an "outsider," but I'd be giving the same advice to any campaign I was on.)
In the past week, Kaine's response to the smear has been EXACTLY the same as Dukakis's. Dukakis had a 17 point lead and wound up losing with this strategy (softball, stall, be nice, explain). Democrats seem to expect that Kaine can use the Dukakis Method, coming from a statistical dead heat (i.e., a 17 point *disadvantage* compared to Dukakis), but arrive at a winning result. That makes no sense to me.
In fact, that makes me pretty damn angry (at the Democrats, not at Mike). In election after election, at the state and national level, we see Democrats run elections the same way they lost them last time...and then act suprised when they lose them again and again and again. Case in point: Bob Schrum holds a world record as a campaign manager for losing presidential elections for Democrats. Off the top of my head, I think he has lost *7*. What on earth was John Kerry thinking when he hired Schrum? We are seeing the same passionate, committed denial of the laws of cause and effect within Virginia Democratic circles right now.
I mean, seriously: if your doctor said to you, "we want to use this medical technique on you. All the other patients we've ever tried it on in the same circumstances in the same way have died. But this time we're sure it will all be fine." Would you go for it? Then why do the Democrats?
In addition, we have the Nader factor to deal with--i.e., Russ Potts (who is a life-long Republican, also running for Virginia governor as an Independent). I am amazed at how naive most voters are about both how partisan politics work, and the stakes involved in the balance of power (e.g., vetoes/veto-blocking, committee assignments, etc.). I am worried that voters who are put off by this latest tiff between Kilgore and Kaine may vote for Potts. Without access to quality polling data, I don't know how to guage which camp will bleed more votes to Potts. I am certainly interested in the objective guesses of other Virginia political observers.
Virginia's gubernatorial looks an awful lot like the 2004 Presidential election. We have party-line voters, and a contested margin of swing voters (which we can't accurately identify on the Democratic side because of the state of the Democratic Party's voter list--in Virginia voter's don't register to vote by party), plus we have Anybody-But-Kilgore Voters, who are likely to find Potts (as a traditional Republican) more attractive than Kaine; and Anybody-But-Kaine Voters who are likely to vote for Potts over Kilgore, especially since Potts' position on a number of social issues is more liberal than Kaine's are. For example, Potts has a clear, solid position in favor of reproductive rights, while Kaine is doing the CathlicWaffle(TM) on abortion the same way he is on the Death Penalty--I'm worried about how many women will vote for Potts over Kaine as a result.
Don't get me wrong. Potts can't win this election, but he can hurt either of the other candidates enough to swing this election.
Virginians also overwhelmingly support the death penality. Kilgore is doing a masterful job of defining the public discourse and luring Kaine into a sand trap with these ads. The last thing Kaine needs to do is alienate shaky voters by talking about the death penalty. Instead, the first thing he says in his response ad last week is "I oppose the death penalty." In Virginia, he may as well have stood up and said "I support Osama Bin Laden." In Canadian terms, last week Kaine scored on his own net.
There is an unspoken understanding that good little Democrats should hold hands and sing Kumbaya and never challenge or question our candidates during elections (or outside elections for that matter) in quest of the all-holy buzz. I do understand this: a big part of what I do for campaigns is generate propaganda, frankly. But there still has to be substance to hold up the fantasies. And buzz counts for nothing when you're counting the votes. (You may recall that the buzz for Kerry was pretty impressive this time last year, too.)
If Virginia Democrats want Kaine to win, thinking happy thoughts isn't going to do the trick. I'd be far happier to see people contact the Kaine campaign and say, "Pull up your socks, dammit. We need you to be the next Governor and we can't afford to have you tank your own election." (I am hoping that Mark Warner and a number of other big Democrats are doing just that.)
Let me be very clear, that I support Tim Kaine, and he is the only choice in this election. I don't want Kaine to lose, I want him to win--and that's why it makes me angry to watch such amatuer, losing moves come out of his campaign.
Kaine can still turn this around, but his time is dwindling fast. He has to stop letting Kilgore define the debate, dump the CatholicWaffle act, get away from the topic of capital punishment, and come out swinging at issues where Kaine is strong and Kilgore is weak. Campaigns aren't rocket science: I think you'll agree that all of these tactics are self-evident. But Kaine doesn't show signs of employing any of them.
If Kaine doesn't turn the campaign around fast, we all lose. It is that simple.
I don't feel my pessimism is exaggerated. I'd say it is just on the mark, and in general, Democrats would benefit from more pessimism, not less.
The registration deadline for the June 14th primary is May 16, THIS MONDAY.
Are you registered to vote?
http://www.sbe.state.va.us/VotRegServ/reg2vote.htm
Check your registration status.
And if you are away at school, don't forget to request an Absentee Ballot.
How many of you have ever studied Kent State at school?
Hey Everyone!
Hey Everyone!
Matt Stoller of BOP News is going to be at MSNBC all day Monday and Tuesday blogging and pitching stories for the TV teams. Email him at matt@bopnews.com if you have a good story that you think should be on air.
MSNBC also has a new program called 'Citizen journalism': http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6348977/
Matt writes:
Please do report - if it's good it can get on MSNBC. And please spread this info around the blogosphere.You heard the man. Do your part to get the country real news coverage for a change. And pass it on.
Via Zephyr Teachout at BOP News:
Here's what I'm pushing to all my lists -- personalize and send to yours. 34 hours till the polls open. - Zephyr Teachout
One last, critical plea:
This election will be won and lost in the next 2 days. So please,
peer-to-peer, friend-to-father, mother-to-mother-in-law, do whatever you
can for the future of this country – for our role in the world, for
our safety, for honesty, to end the fiscal chaos Bush has created, for
our democratic traditions.Whatever you do, do something more than voting. Here are four options:
(1) Volunteer with a voter mobilization group. One of the best is
American Coming Together. Go to www.acthere.com to learn more. As a
volunteer, you'll have opportunities to canvass, phone bank, and pass
out literature.*(2) Print out posters from www.udecide.org and pass them out.
(3) Take a sheet of paper and spend 20 minutes writing down names of all the people you know in swing states. Call them. Tell them to find their polling place here: www.pollingplacelocation.com.
(4) Create your own 8 hour GOTV plan for the last 48 hours.
Here's how you do it:
a. On Monday, spend two hours making plans. Call and email people you
know who might want to work with you, and sign them up for these
responsibilities for your dorm or street:i. Literature drop captain(s) (to pass out information at doorsteps)b. On Tuesday, meet first thing (in person or on the phone) with all the people who have agreed to help
ii. Polling place captain(s) (to pass out information near polling places)
iii. Visibility captain(s) (to put up signs)i. 8 A.M. Literature drop. Go to every dorm room and house where yourfriends live and drop off a reminder to vote for change, with accurate polling location info and a partisan candidate comparison. Include a map with written directions on the back. Use posters at www.udecide.com. The literature drop captain will be responsible for making copies and getting others to help distribute.
ii. 10 AM – 11 AM Call 10 people you know to remind them to vote.
iii. 12 PM Email everyone you know (text message and IM are good, too!). Include a reminder to vote, where to vote, and who to contact in case of a problem: 1-866-OUR-VOTE.
iv. Throughout the Day. Find people willing to stand near the polls and pass out literature. More is always better, so don't worry if others are there too – you can coordinate when you meet them!
v. Throughout the Day. Find people willing to poster signs about where the polls are, when and where and why they should vote.
*If are having trouble finding an organization in your area, leave a comment that includes your location, and I will help you find one.
EnjoyTheDraft.com just went live!
Do you think you can give staunch Republicans a compelling reason to support John Kerry?
Margaret Cho tells us why she is political.
Why am I political? Because society's consistent and constant disregard and lack of respect for minorities, even the title 'minority', when in many areas of the country we are in fact the majority, is too much to bear silently. Their insistence at our invisibility, whether it is as subtle as non-inclusion, or as loud as violent hate crimes, is contagious, and can make me hide from myself.
No matter who the "they" is and who the "us" is (racism, misogyny, homophobia...etc), part of how hey cripple us is by making us internalize their discrimination as self-hatred.
Go check her Cho's full story.
And thanks to Latino Pundit for the link.
Don't know what Neo-Conservatives are?
Watch this video. (Via The Liberal Avenger)For more information on PNAC, the Project for a New American Century, check in with the good folks at PNAC.Info.
Why should American college students be afraid of the draft? Ask freshman Congressman Tim Ryan D-OH17:
Watch Ryan's blistering attack on the Bush administration's claims they will not re-instate the draft.Thanks to Ohio Countdown via BOP News.
Video in MP3 format via Drew Thaler.
Transcript courtesy of Serenepia.
Kos received this email:
I think you (and maybe your readers) will be interested in a personal experience I had last night while watching the debate.[Via Shamelss Agitator]
My 19 year-old (former foster) son, who has never been interested in politics, sat down with me and began silently watching about 10 minutes into it.
About half an hour later he turned to me and said, "Dad, am I able to vote?". I told him he would have to register but that yes, he could vote. I asked who he wanted to vote for, and he said "Kerry's the tall dude, right?". I said yes, and he said, "I'd vote for Kerry".
I asked him why, and he replied, "Because, I can tell if they were both captured by terrorists Kerry would keep telling them to go f*** themselves, and Bush would cry like a baby and tell them anything they wanted to know".
Today we registered him to vote.
-- Proud Dad
In [my Vancouver, B.C. homegirl] Sarah McLachlin's new video, World On Fire, she takes the standard budget for a music video, $150,000, and invests it in providing critical services to 1,000,000 people. Click here to see the video, and here for a list of the organizations McLachlin donated the money to (minus $15, her scaled-down video production cost). If you can get through the video dry-eyed, you're made of sterner stuff than I am.
I just received great news from the Virginia Partisans:
Friends,
I am pleased to report that today, the Republican-run US House of Representatives failed to muster the necessary 2/3s majority to pass an amendment to write discrimination in our US Constitution. Almost every Democrat voted with us, almost every Republican voted against us.
I am particularly pleased to say that Congressmen Bobby Scott (3rd District) and Jim Moran (8th District) both stood with us and voted no. We have endorsed both for re-election, this further re-affirms our faith in these two strong supporters of inclusion and equality. I am enclosing Congressman Moran's comments on the House floor---I believe they speak for themself.
Every Virginia Republican voted against us on this---even "moderate" Tom Davis, who had earlier pledged his opposition to the amendment. Call them and express your disappointment 202-224-3121 is the Capitol Switchboard. But more importantly, remember this on November 2nd and be sure to vote for good Democratic candidates who believe inclusion. As always, you can find our endorsed candidates thus far at:
http://www.vapartisans.org/endorse.html
With a Democratic majority and a Democratic administration, a vote like this would never have come up to begin with! We have just over a month to make sure we elect Kerry-Edwards and Democrats to the US House... You can donate to our Federal PAC via our website. You can get information on volunteer opportunities, all across Virginia, by e-mail me at president@vapartisans.org . Please make sure we do everything you can to make sure Virginia make a strong pro-equality and pro-Democratic statement on November 2nd.
Best regards,
Josh Israel
President
Representative James P. Moran
Federal Marriage Amendment Debate Remarks
September 30, 2004
Mr. Speaker, I rise today in opposition to the so-called "Marriage Protection Amendment."
Today, we stand on the floor of the people's body, the U.S. House of Representatives, with the intention of writing discrimination into the Constitution for the first time in our nation's history.
The "Marriage Protection Amendment" is a cruel joke. How it does anything to protect marriage in this country is beyond me. Will it instruct individuals on the necessity of communication in a successful relationship? Does it help reduce promiscuity or stop unwanted pregnancies? Will it strengthen people's resolve to work through the hard times that every marriage brings? No, sadly it will do none of those things.
What it will do, however, is single out one group of people for discrimination, declaring them forever unworthy of the same legal protection all other Americans enjoy. Further, this amendment would usurp the will of the people in states that have used their traditional states' rights authority to define civil marriage and civil union laws. State laws passed by elected representatives in places like Vermont will be wiped clean off the books. In situations where a loved one is sick in the hospital, same-sex couples will once again lose the right to sit bedside and help nurse their partner back to health. These couples' ability to plan a financial future together and share healthcare benefits will also be forever washed away.
Mr. Speaker, this push to tamper with the Constitution is misguided because we already have sufficient legislation to allow individual states the ability to retain and structure marriage laws the way they see fit. While I opposed and continue to oppose the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) which passed the House back in 1996, this law is still fully functional and in effect. No state in the union has to accept any other state's laws with respect to same sex marriage. Since the bill's enactment eight years ago, it has not been successfully challenged in any court, anywhere in the country.
Why then, do we need to preemptively amend the Constitution? We've seen where preemptive war has gotten us so far, let's not make the same mistake with this most cherished of American documents.
Mr. Speaker, the Constitution should not be used as political football. Members across the aisle continue to play a risky game of Russian roulette with the blueprint of our democracy. I stand in opposition to this crass attempt to politically divide the American public in an election year and urge my colleagues to vote against amending the Constitution.
____________________________________________________________________
Building a Broader Coalition In The Commonwealth since 1992.
Virginia Partisans Gay & Lesbian Democratic Club
http://www.vapartisans.org
Virginia Partisans is now taking online payment for membership, State and Federal PAC donations, and general donations. Visit our web site at http://www.vapartisans.org/online.htm and join, renew, or donate today!
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Bear with me on an elliptical story:
Has anyone else noticed the gross in-proportions between the reaction the country and media are having to an honest oversight by Dan Rather (the Alabama documents), versus the deliberate disregard for truth that Bush used as a means to pursue his own agenda. Have 1000+ people died because of Dan Rather's honest mistake?
Doug the Dynamic Driveler, a fellow blogger and fellow Canadian for that matter and a man of a suprising number of talents, is also a trained and former chef, who wonders when he meets young people interesting in pursuing a career as a professional cook if they might not be two eggs short of an omelette.
Oh I know where so much 0f this comes from of course. After all, I am a certified Food Network junkie. But the Food Network is to cooking like Disney is to animals, it ain’t real. These kids watch Emeril (shudder - the man is a buffoon, has bad hygeine and zero presentation skills), or Iron Chef (great entertainment and tremendous talent), or watch the Bocuse d’ Or or one of the other stars in ascendant and think , ya that’s what I’m going to do. Oh how little they know what they are really letting themselves in for because I gotta tell you gang it ain’t like that in the real world unless you own your own restaurant and even then not usually.For more career advice on the brutal realities of life in a professional kitchen, read Doug's whole article, Two Over Easy,
Alright, maybe I was a little prejudiced, but being from Fairfax (NOVA) I always looked at Southwestern Va as being very conservative. I'm not sure if it was the southern accents, or the inreasing amount of confederate flags I see as I travel down past Richmond, but I thought for sure I would be one of very few liberals here. I was very, very wrong. I went to the first YD meeting at VT and was amazed at the participation. One Hundred and Twenty students attended the first meeting (as opposed to the 20 members that they had last year). Apparently, those of us from NOVA aren't the only ones pissed off about the direction our country is headed in and determined to make a change. Two weekends ago, I attended "Acres of Democrats" which is an event that has been taking place in Southwestern Va since 1947. The old southern democrats listened to their country music and eat fried chicken with potato salad before the speakers took the mic. This was a shock to me because I always think of democrats being represented by musicians like Dave Mathews and Bruce Springstein. It does take a bit of getting used to the type of democrats that are down here, but they are enthusiastic and energetic. I found myself appreciating these southern liberals as another of our diverse party's groups. There is always a place for people like this in our party as far as I am concerned (an exception being Zell Miller... you should have a reason for being a democrat beyond being born one). The Virginia Tech Young Democrats are currently planning a huge "Rally for Democratic Unity" to take place on the drill field of our campus on October 17th from 1-5pm. The VYDs have agreed to make this a "Campus Invasion" event, but all ages of democrats are invited from all over the state. There will be speakers, a band, and food/merchandise vendors. I hope some if not all of you can come! Tell people you know about it too! Hopefully this gives you some hope that Virginia can go blue, it was definately reassuring to me.
I wrote about The Political Compass a while back.
1) Go to the Political Compass web site and take the Political Compass Quiz. It takes about 10 minutes. Here at The Zoo we are well aware that the questions are not perfectly designed, so please refrain from sending us complaints. The BPCP is an attempt to get a general idea of blogger's political affiliation and should not be construed as definitive or infallible.You see? How simple. How lovely. How fun.
2) Send me your results, along with the name of your blog and the name you use when posting. The BPCP Graph will be updated twice monthly (on or about the 1st and 15th of every month). Note that all respondents will be researched to ensure that quiz results are coming from actual bloggers and have really been sent by the party in question.
[Please note that "send me" refers to Sandor at the Zoo, not Shaula at C101. I think this is a brilliant project but I'm not actually part of it.]
3) Each update includes links, immediately below the BPCP Graph, to the bloggers new to the project. A permanent list of BPCP participants is maintained further down the page and new additions will "slide down" onto it with the following update.